http://vegasrealtorstevemakesithappen.com/blog/archive_201001/sort_entrydatetime-desc/ Custom Lake Las Vegas home with outstanding features just reduced to $1,199,000.00!Please join CBPR Agents Carmine & Lorraine Ferrara this Sunday, Jan. 31st from 12pm - 4pm at 3 Grand Anacapri, Henderson NV 89011.  Light refreshments will be served.  http://vegasrealtorstevemakesithappen.com/blog/835/lake-las-vegas-open-house-this-sunday!/ Thu, 28 Jan 2010 10:40:32 -0800 Recent remarks by the Federal Reserve suggest that they believe that inflation is likely to be subdued for some time. The committee stated yesterday that they will continue the target range for federal funds at 0 to ¼ percent. Naturally, since not all indicators point to a full economic rebound, the Fed has to be careful not to prematurely apply the brakes.However not everyone in the world markets has this same view on inflation expectations. Many bond traders have the view that inflation will not be subdued in the coming years.  Many observers prefer to use gold as an indicator of inflation and gold recently hit highs in several currencies, especially the dollar.In an recent article in the Wall Street Journal, Tom Lauricella notes that investors do not believe that the Fed will be able to reverse its giant money infusion without instigating inflation. He describes that Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are a good measure of gauging investor’s inflation expectations. Nice readings can also be obtained from the 5yr5yr breakeven which employs the 10-year TIPS to guess about inflation 10 years hence. An excerpt from the article:Barclays Capital's 5yr5yr measure now reads 2.9% a on a par with levels in late 2003. Then, "these measures increased because the Fed was keeping rates low" as it's doing now, says Michael Pond, inflation market strategist at Barclays.What's causing this? Not expectations of rapid economic growth. "Investors appear to be concerned that the Fed may not have the right tools to put quantitative easing into reverse or get the timing right," says Jeffrey Schoenfeld, co-head of fixed income at Brown Brothers Harriman.Still a tough call on inflation and it really depends on the strength of the rebound because we do have flat or declining prices on a lot of things people use, especially housing. Further, I see hidden inflation in many products. Have you bought a candy bar or some other food goods lately? I think they’ve gotten smaller. I also notice poorer quality in a lot of stuff. I wish I could grab a caliper and measure candy bars from the same company but in age differences of 10 and 20 years. Perhaps some well stocked bomb shelters from the 80’s will have some candy bar artifacts. I’m guessing that there is a noticeable decrease in size.Anyhow, with the sheer size of the Fed money injections, if the velocity of money does increase, I am a mild hawk on inflation. Perhaps not this year and maybe not even next year but I don’t see how this can be unraveled smoothly. That’s why I still like residential real estate and some well bought commercial properties. Just imagine having a fixed rate of 5.16% o mortgage when inflation is 7%.&t;>  WSJ article  http://vegasrealtorstevemakesithappen.com/blog/834/the-fed-inflation-expectations-and-real-estate/ Thu, 28 Jan 2010 09:53:59 -0800 Congrats to Coldwell Banker Premier Realty agent Carolyn Mullany on selling the former Las Vegas Home of Michael Jackson.  Representing the seller, Carolyn received an offer on Friday, Jan. 22nd and closed escrow on Wednesday, Jan.27th.  Read more about Jackson's Vegas Home Sale.Check out photos of the amazing estate below! http://vegasrealtorstevemakesithappen.com/blog/833/largest-home-sale-in-over-one-year/ Wed, 27 Jan 2010 10:43:21 -0800 Today the Standard & Poors Case-Shiller home price indices were released. There are always a lot of articles that come out after this release. Many are focused on year-over-year changes and few consult the seasonally adjusted figures. Further, many people don't know that Standand & Poors also calculates tiered price indices. These are homes grouped by price tiers, that way we can make even better comparisons. Like granny smith apples to granny smith apples versus comparing granny smith to Blenheim (yeah I had to look that one up). While they are all apples, each variety of apples tastes different. That's one reason I like repeat sale indices over median indices, which are less robust given the different mix of homes in each sample, often like calculating a median of apples and oranges.I find that residential real estate prices do exhibit seasonality; therefore I think it’s appropriate to use seasonally adjusted indices. The interesting thing about the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller indices for Las Vegas is…it confirms flattening in each price tier. In fact the October to November observations showed an increase in the low and middle tiers.  After months of month-to-month declines (since 2006 and 2007 actually) you would think this would somewhat newsworthy. Further, as you can see from the trend I’ve drawn for the low-tier index, prices are deeply below trend. The trend I drew does not incorporate appreciation from the 2000’s either, even though the early 2000’s did have some organic price increases due to heavy inbound migration and a booming job market. Further, we ignore the whole bubble period; therefore my trend line is really not that generous for long-term appreciation. Nevertheless, the low-tier index appears to be 28% bow trend.Overshooting on the downside from a bubble is not a surprise since a lot of assets have exhibited this in the past. You can see the arcing in each series for the recent few months observations and that is the flatting I mentioned. Hopefully this is an inflection point and that prices will at the least remain stable (although I am curious about how the finality of the tax credit will impact prices, I’m still comfortable around the prices we’ve been seeing). Below trend can be good for several reasons. Take the reverse scenario of buying above trend. Often prices return to long run trends, implying a bad decision in purchasing above trend. Buying below trend is a lot easier case to make if you’re not emotional. Additionally, these below trend prices often result in a lower mortgage payment than rent (can be thought of like a low P/E ratio in equities).  I also find it curious that folks who bought way above trend during the bubble don’t think it’s a good idea to buy now even though we are way below trend.  One last note, low interest rates should not last indefinitely and this should be a factor for many potential buyers.Source: Standard & Poors.This is the seasonally adjusted set of indices for Las Vegas. http://vegasrealtorstevemakesithappen.com/blog/829/case-shiller-for-las-vegas-up/ Tue, 26 Jan 2010 06:20:23 -0800 For the latest happenings in the Las Vegas real estate market. January is off to a good start...Q1 is going to be busy and investor interest is swelling. cbprds.com/newsletterfiles/news1.html http://vegasrealtorstevemakesithappen.com/blog/826/coldwell-banker-premier-realty-developer-and-investment-services-newsletter/ Mon, 25 Jan 2010 03:02:09 -0800